Feb. 23, 2021
Thanks for Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American Title Corporation, for sharing below.
House Prices Are Hot, But Is Housing Overvalued?
Punxsutawney Phil may have signaled six more weeks of winter, but in housing, it looks like spring (home buying) has already arrived. Typically, the housing market winds down a bit in the winter, but America’s housing market is booming, even in the colder months. The First American Data & Analytics nominal house price index indicates unadjusted home prices nationwide increased by 12.4 percent in December compared with one year ago and are nearly 21 percent above the housing boom peak in 2006. While nominal prices have risen, house-buying power has grown even faster, increasing 21 percent year over year due to historically low rates and still rising incomes for those employed. Even though purchasing power is outpacing price appreciation, the rapid rise in house prices does prompt fears of a repeat of the 2008 crisis, even among some in the housing industry. But last time was different.
“Nationally, house-buying power continues to exceed the median sale price and that implies housing is not overvalued today. Even locally, this time is different.”
The housing market today is not the same as the housing market during the bubble years. Most importantly, today’s housing market is not overvalued. Considering only the nominal level of house prices is not sufficient to determine whether the market is overvalued or not. Lower mortgage interest rates and rising incomes correspond with higher house prices as home buyers can afford to borrow and buy more. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home. Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power in 2006 nationally, but today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price nationally. Of course, real estate is local and not all markets are created equal.
Most Top Markets Are Undervalued…With a Few Exceptions
Of the top 50 markets tracked, only three markets, all located in California, were overvalued, meaning the median existing-home sale price exceeded house-buying power, in December. The market with the highest overvaluation was Los Angeles, where the median consumer house-buying power in December was just over $590,000, significantly below the median sale price of a home at approximately $729,000. San Francisco and San Jose were also overvalued, although to a lesser extent. However, all three overvalued markets are still significantly less overvalued than during the national housing boom peak in March 2006. Los Angeles, for example, was overvalued by approximately $286,000 in 2006, more than twice what it is today.
The remaining 47 markets are actually undervalued, many significantly so. In fact, in December 2020, the average percentage difference between house-buying power and the median sale price of an existing home in these 47 markets was nearly 59 percent. In 2006, only 34 markets were considered undervalued, and the average percentage difference between house-buying power and the median sale price of an existing home was 39 percent. Even locally, this time it’s different.
Where Does the Housing Market Go From Here?
The First American Data & Analytics preliminary nominal house price index anticipates continued strengthening of house price appreciation through February. As the housing market heads into the spring home buying season, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance all but assures more house price growth. During the housing bubble, rapid house price appreciation was not entirely supported by economic fundamentals, but in today’s housing market, nominal house price appreciation has been driven by a historic shortage of supply relative to demand and rate-driven surge in house-buying power. Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and sale prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth in the months to come.